How the industry develops is the topic of greatest concern to people and entrepreneurs in every industry. 2013-2015 is a milestone in the history of the industry. When the elevator association’s information network was established in 1986, the national elevator demand was 10,000 units, and in 2015 it had reached 600,000 units. Looking back at history, the most prone to the turning point is the 2008 international financial crisis, when the annual output was 460,000 units, followed by a period of rapid development. Although the base is large, the development rate is more than double digits in just three years. The medium rushed to 700,000 units. However, it is also in these three years that the elevator industry has lost the best period for industrial adjustment. If there is no investment of 4 trillion yuan in the year and the real estate is pushed up, then the phenomenon of destocking and overcapacity will be weakened. .
However, the actual development track is that in 2013, China’s elevator ownership exceeded 3 million units, and the per capita possession reached the global average level, marking a new height in China’s vertical transportation field, but this achievement is both exciting and contemplative. Because at the same time, the industry’s growth rate of more than 20% in 20 years has entered the shift period, entering the medium-speed development stage of more than 10%, and the growth rate in 2013 was 14%. In 2014, driven by the two factors of limited development of land stocks and the cumulative total of residential sites under construction, the elevator market continued to maintain a high growth rate of 11.3%, with a total output of 714,000 units and exports of nearly 70,000 units. Exceeding our expectations and reaching the highest point in history. It can be confirmed now that the total output of 714,000 units in 2014 is the peak of the production in the history of China’s elevator industry. In this year, the number of elevators in China reached 3.65 million units.
It must be recognized that the total output of China’s elevators has reached 65%-70% of the total global elevator production. The total production capacity of China’s elevator industry has exceeded 1.4 million units, which is 1.3 times of the global total demand. Overcapacity has become an indisputable fact. If the ratio of domestic demand and export 10% is measured, the overcapacity is almost doubled. 2015 is the turning point of the elevator industry. According to the statistics of the first half of the year, the total order volume has a significant downward trend compared with the same period of 2014. At present, it is basically certain that 2015 will be the second negative growth year in the history of elevator development. In 1990, there was a negative growth, only one year. However, according to the trend of real estate, this negative number will not rebound again, and there will still be a slight downward trend next year.
From the real estate industry: business statistics in the first half of the year showed that the new building design contract fell by 47%, and the efficiency of construction machinery fell by 51%. It is foreseeable that in the next few years, the elevator industry will end in the era of market growth, and the era of market reconfiguration will come. There will be major reforms in the way competition between manufacturing companies and corporate development models.
How to do? Recognize the situation, take the initiative, and adjust the structure.
For real estate, simply the central government has three major spirits: one to stabilize the real estate market; the second to go to inventory, the national sale of housing according to the current sales speed and sales ratio, is expected to take 44 months; three-way structure, promote development.
How to see the turning point of the industry? This day is coming sooner or later. It’s better to be late than to arrive early. It’s better to know as early as possible. It’s better to know early. History cannot be changed, but it must be reflected. If this day happens in 2008, the elevator industry will not have such a serious overcapacity and serious unreasonable industrial product structure today. This is a lesson we should learn.
At present, China’s elevator industry is seriously unreasonable. There are too many surpluses in the manufacturing industry and too much service. The elevators are industries with equal emphasis on manufacturing and services. The service industry in the future will be more important than the manufacturing industry. In developed countries in Europe and America, the elevator service industry accounts for 60%-70%, and the manufacturing industry 30%-40%.
The characteristics of the elevator industry in the future are that the market increment has increased year by year. The more the quantity of the market, the greater the market demand. The longer the age of the ladder, the higher the value. The market for maintenance, repair and transformation will over-compensate the manufacturing industry. Therefore, the elevator industry is still an industry with a rising total output value, and the development prospects are still bright, but the development model will undergo major changes, mainly in two aspects: First, the industrial structure enters the adjustment period, that is, the manufacturing industry is the main step-by-step Adjusted to the service industry. In Japan, for example, elevator services account for 72%-75%. China’s elevator industry has a short history of development, so the age of the elevator is generally short. At present, it belongs to the stage where the manufacturing industry is larger than the service industry. However, due to the huge increase in the number of new elevators each year, and the intensity of use frequency and the shortage of service resources, etc., Promoting the transition of the industry to the service sector and the corresponding improvement of security-related policies and technical standards will also facilitate this process. Therefore, it is very beneficial for our industry to adjust the industrial structure in such a period. Second, the product structure entered an adjustment period. With the improvement of product standards, the invention and application of new technologies, and the increasing demands of market individualization, the product structure is safer, more reliable, more convenient to install and maintain, energy-saving, environmentally friendly, and intelligent, and the product structure is bound to become significant. Changes will pose serious challenges to the core competitiveness of enterprises. Enterprises that are not creatively produced by imitation will be eliminated, and innovation will drive development from the conceptual level to the substantive level.
Looking back at the modern development history of elevators for more than 30 years, every product structure adjustment is accompanied by technological innovation. The improvement of technical standards has comprehensively promoted the technological progress of the industry.
China’s manufacturing in the elevator industry 2025. Made in China 2025 is based on Germany’s Industry 4.0, which has formulated such a plan for the outstanding problems of China’s manufacturing industry, which is not strong, efficient and effective, and fundamentally changes the manufacturing route and pattern. Our strategic goal is to build on the national conditions, stand on the reality, and strive to achieve a strong manufacturing country through three steps. The realization of manufacturing 2025 in the elevator industry is of great significance and rich connotation, and realizes individualized and far-reaching products. Flexible production without real meaning cannot be achieved. At present, the standard product automation production line is used. It is difficult to meet the demand for personalized, small batch and multi-variety in the future, so the elevator industry has a long way to go.
The development space of China’s elevator industry is still vast and full of confidence. There are good reasons for saying this: 1. The characteristics of elevator products determine the post-market that is increasing year by year. By the end of 2015, the number of elevators in China will exceed 4 million units. The increase in output value of maintenance, repair and transformation will be greater than Increase the reduction in elevators. 2. The cumulative amount of elevators with a total age of more than 15 years will increase, and the amount of renovation will increase significantly. 3. Policy elimination and improvement of standards will create new increments. 4. The newly-awake demand for public transportation, public buildings and urbanization of the population will still create new increments. Under such circumstances, more than 500 existing manufacturing companies and more than 8,000 maintenance enterprises will be re-allocated according to market resource allocation in this round of product adjustment and industrial restructuring. After the elimination, the industry will enter the market. Good development. In the end, a new balance will be reached in the new situation, and the industry will enter a healthy and sustainable development track. The remaining will occupy more market resources and develop faster and better.